We recently headed into our film study database to decipher Tony Romo’s effectiveness when he audibles out of the original play call. Sometimes Romo will actually call an entirely new play at the line of scrimmage, while other times he will simply signal for the team to check into the second play which was called in the huddle (the team often calls two plays in the huddle, planning to run the first unless Romo checks out).
The latter scenario is marked by a phrase many of you have probably heard the Dallas’ quarterback yelling on television, “Kill, Kill, Kill!” When you hear this, Romo sees something in the defense that makes him believe the first play called in the huddle will be unsuccessful. The second play, which is the one run after the “Kill” call, is generally dissimilar to the original call to combat whatever problem Romo noticed.
We tracked every play during which Romo called an audible all season, and here are the results:
As you can see, Romo checked out of a play 79 times this season, which equates to 4.9 per game and 8.0 percent of all plays. The Cowboys were much more successful when Romo audibled into a run, which he did 59.5 percent of the time he checked. They averaged 5.8 yards-per-rush on all run audibles, a full yard better than their season average. They were not as successful on pass audibles, however, averaging a half yard less per attempt than their season average.
One possible explanation for the lower productivity in the passing game after checks is that defenses are more prepared to defend the pass after an audible. They may assume an audible by the opposing quarterback means he sees an opportunity for a big play, probably a pass, thus making them more likely to effectively defend the pass.
So should the effectiveness of the run force Romo check into a run play more often than the current 59.5 percent rate? Not necessarily. That percentage is already rather high, and if it would increase to say, 70.0 percent, the defense would have a great indication as to the play call.
Further, there are times when Romo is even more efficient with his audibles, both when they result in a run and a pass. These times are when the opposing defense shows blitz (only lines up as if they will blitz, but does not necessarily blitz), and the results are below.
Of the 79 times that Romo checked on the season, the defense was showing blitz at the time on 30 of those plays. The Cowboys gained 237 total yards on these checks, gaining 1.9 more yards-per-rush against the blitz than their season average, and 1.5 extra yards per pass. The sample size of 30 plays may be low, but probably significant enough to conclude that Romo is more effective in making audible calls when he perceives blitz.
Romo was very effective checking out of plays when he noticed blitz.
Also notice Romo checked to a pass 56.7 percent of the time during these situations, compared to just 40.5 percent overall. This may be because Romo is more comfortable putting the pressure on himself to make a play when the offense is facing pressure.
While this higher pass-to-run ratio could also be influenced by the fact that teams are more likely to blitz during passing downs, it probably is not too much of a factor, as the Cowboys would already have a pass called and would be much less likely to even audible.
So why is Romo more efficient making checks when the defense shows blitz? One explanation is that Romo is just more effective versus the blitz in general. This could reveal some of the success, but it probably cannot account for the full two yard difference in average yards-per-pass. Further, Romo’s ability versus the blitz does not explain the increase in rushing average when he checks after seeing blitz.
Thus, we must conclude that Romo is generally effective in making audibles, but much more so when he believes a blitz is coming. This does not necessarily mean that he should check out of more plays when he perceives blitz, but perhaps increasing the number of audibles during these situations until the yards-per-play average peaks may result in an even more effective Dallas Cowboys offense.
Bush's versatility means he would not take the place of Barber, Jones, or Choice, but simply add versatility and overall playmaking ability to the team as a "slash" player.
In our original Draft Needs article we profiled the top five Cowboys’ offseason positional needs. Heading that list was a playmaking return man. While the Cowboys could benefit from getting younger at a few spots (LT, ILB), there are no major weaknesses among the 22 offensive and defensive starting positions.
The same can not be said for both the punt and kick returner spots, whose impact on a football game can be overwhelming. The Cowboys ranked sixth in punt return average (10.9 yards per return) with Patrick Crayton receiving the bulk of the work, but that average was largely skewed by two return touchdowns. It is tough to say whether or not the Cowboys still would have scored had another returner been back deep, but either way it is quite easy to notice that Crayton lacks the quickness and burst an elite punt returner generally possesses.
The kick return combination was comprised of two young players whose impact on offense has been greater than that in the return game: Felix Jones and Kevin Ogletree. Felix in particular has obviously shown uncanny acceleration and quickness on offense, but his mindset on kick returns has not been comparable. He appeared hesitant and unwilling to stick his nose into traffic, and it resulted in the Cowboys ranking just 20th in the league in kick return average at 22.0 yards per return.
Dallas obviously felt uneasy about both return positions after week five, when they signed return specialist Allen Rossum. Rossum got hurt on his first return against Atlanta and subsequently released, but the point was made. Perhaps this turn of events gave Crayton the motivation he needed to pick up his game, but we still maintain Dallas’ two return touchdowns were more a result of excellent blocking than Crayton’s ability to create plays.
There are definitely capable return guys in the draft, making that an option for the ‘Boys, but why take the chance you do not get who you want? This team is a few game-breaking plays away from becoming a Super Bowl team, and current Saints’ slash player Reggie Bush has a proven track record in the role of “game-breaker.” Who remembers this Monday-nighter two seasons ago when Bush’s return abilities completely changed the landscape of the contest?
Can anyone honestly say that those are plays that Patrick Crayton is capable of making? Crayton has above-average vision and is a safe option, but safe does not win championships.
The most common criticism we have been receiving when discussing the possibility of obtaining Bush is that the team is already stacked at running back and does not need, or have room, to sign another. Those concerns are absolutely justified, but not necessarily a problem because Reggie is more than just a running back (perhaps not even a running back at all). In fact, the Cowboys, in our opinion, would still receive a proper return on their investment if they used Bush solely as a returner.
Kim Kardashian comes as a package deal, and could possibly take over for Flozell at left tackle.
The former USC star’s ability extends far beyond returning, however, so his impact would not be limited to just special teams. He has shown the ability to line up out wide and make plays in the passing game, maybe even more so than when he lines up in the traditional running back spot. Perhaps the Saints used Reggie incorrectly. He is not a running back. He is an athlete, a playmaker.
Thus, we propose that the Cowboys do everything possible to acquire Reggie Bush. He would basically take the spot of the aging Crayton, but with more versatility. Imagine it now: #25, Cowboys punt returner, kick returner, slot receiver, running back, water boy, mascot, PLAYMAKER, REGGIE BUSH! He can do it all.
Of course, all of this is contingent on the Saints releasing Bush. Impossible? There were talks about Bush’s release months ago already, so it remains to be seen whether his improved playoff play will result in his stay in New Orleans. The Saints will likely ask Bush to take a pay cut, as he is due $8 million next season. If he does not accept and hits the open market, there should be no player higher on the Cowboys’ wish list.
And for those who are not yet on board, remember, the Kardashian sisters come as a package deal.
Q: We are always among the most penalized teams in the league. When does this change?
The Cowboys will find winning comes much easier if they limit their penalties.
Karen Hurl, York, Pennsylvania
I would love to say next season, but the Cowboys were again one of the most penalized teams in the league in 2009, despite placing emphasis on decreasing penalties this past offseason. They committed the fourth-most penalties at 6.9 per game. There is a ton of evidence that both turnovers and defensive penalties are correlated directly to team wins, so Dallas has really had to outplay teams to win in recent years.
Romo did an excellent job of decreasing his interceptions this season, and this, more than anything, was the reason they won the division. The number one priority for this team next season should be to continue to protect the ball, limit the penalties, yet still maintain their aggressiveness.
Q: What do you think Kevin Ogletree’s role will be next season, and how has Manuel Johnson progressed?
Bruce M.B.
Kevin Ogletree really showed signs of greatness this season. He ran excellent routes and showed an above-average ability to gain yards after the catch. The Cowboys really utilized this ability on smoke screens against Philadelphia to neutralize their blitz.
Could Ogletree overtake Roy Williams as soon as next season?
Some writers even think Ogletree is ready to challenge Roy Williams for the starting job. That seems to be a bit of a stretch, mainly because it will be hard for the Cowboys to bench a $45 million player. Still, if Roy Williams doesn’t find some sort of connection with Romo, something will have to be done.
Manuel Johnson is going to have a tough time cracking the Cowboys’ 53-man roster. He was on the practice squad last year, and he would have to overtake either Ogletree or Hurd to make the team, assuming the Cowboys only keep five wide receivers.
Further, if the team chooses to draft a return man who happens to play wide receiver (such as Texas’ WR Jordan Shipley, as we have been advocating), then Manuel’s chances of making the team disappear completely.
Q: Do you think the Cowboys could get Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant?
Dez Bryant is a stud, but Dallas has basically no shot of drafting him.
They need a wide receiver.
Daniel, El Paso, Texas
The chances of getting Dez Bryant are just about zero. As we explained earlier, the ‘Boys would have to part with their first and second-round selections just to get up to around pick #16. There is little chance that Bryant drops passed Miami at #12, and for Dallas to move there, they would have to give up their first through fifth-round picks, as per the NFL Draft Value Chart.
Secondly, we are not sure they need a wide receiver. We actually see the position as somewhat of a strength with the emergence of Austin. If the team drafts a return man who happens to be a receiver, that is another story, but giving up nearly your entire draft for a guy you will have to pay millions of dollars is not an option (especially when you have two WR’s who will be making nearly $100 million once Austin signs an extension).
Throwback Marty B Rap
11. Denver Broncos- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Derrick Morgan
Most mock drafts have Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant in this spot, but we think they seem to be forgetting how little Josh McDaniels values receivers. He believes he can just plug anyone into his system and it will roll along. If Rolando McClain is still available, he could be the pick here, but with him off the board in our mock draft, Derrick Morgan is the selection and fills a need at DE for Denver.
Dez Bryant
12. Miami Dolphins- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
The Dolphins will be thrilled if Dez Bryant falls to them. We love Bryant’s size, speed, and ability to track the ball. He will have to pass Cleveland, Buffalo, and Jacksonville on the way to this spot, but those teams have so many other pressing needs that there is a good possibility that it happens.
Bruce Campbell
13. San Francisco 49ers- Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
In our mock, OT’s Bruce Campbell and Oklahoma’s Trent Williams are still on the board, so either could be the pick here. The Niners could also look for safety help, but the value is better with Campbell.
Trent Williams
14. Seattle Seahawks- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Having already selected Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, the Seahawks would be thrilled to get his college teammate in the 14th slot to protect their investment. Williams is a tremendous athlete for his size, reminiscent of Ravens’ tackle Michael Oher.
Brian Price
15. New York Giants- Brian Price, DT, UCLA
The Giants just cut LB Antonio Pierce, but they may argue that the best way to protect an inexperienced linebacker is with a dominant defensive tackle. Brian Price declared early after an excellent junior campaign and could be the third defensive tackle selected.
Carlos Dunlap
16. Tennessee Titans- Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
The Titans could use a cornerback, but with no great value on the board at that position, they select Florida’s Carlos Dunlap. Dunlap has some character concerns, but Jeff Fisher has never hesitated to bring in high-risk players, i.e. Pacman Jones.
Earl Thomas
17. San Francisco 49ers- Earl Thomas, FS, Texas
The Niners would love if the draft goes as we have predicted, as they would get two solid players at positions of need. Clemson’s C.J. Spiller is a popular pick here, but the Niners would be better served selecting a playmaker on the defensive side of the ball.
Dan Williams
18. Pittsburgh Steelers- Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
Williams is competing with UCLA’s Brian Price to be the third defensive tackle selected. He would come in and immediately compete with Casey Hampton, joining forces with last year’s first round selection Ziggy Hood.
Everson Griffen
19. Atlanta Falcons- Everson Griffen, DE, USC
Griffen could be a bit of a reach at pick #19, but Atlanta desperately needs a pass-rusher opposite John Abraham. Texas’ DE Sergio Kindle is also an option here.
C.J. Spiller
20. Houston Texans- C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
The Texans would be ecstatic to see Spiller fall to them, as it would potentially be the best value of the draft thus far. Spiller isn’t a perfect fit with RB Steve Slaton, but the Texans seem fed up with Slaton’s injuries and ball security concerns.
Cowboys at Broncos, October 4, 2009. There are just seconds left on the clock with Dallas at Denver’s two-yard line, down seven. The Cowboys have two plays left to score and are sure to try to get the ball to their top playmakers. Right?
Right, if you think the Cowboys best option is Sam Hurd. The Cowboys force two slants to Hurd on 3rd and 4th and Goal and lose the game. Don’t get us wrong–Hurd is a great bench player and has improved vastly, but, with Roy Williams out of the game, the Cowboys needed to target their Pro Bowl tight end. Surely he had to be open on just one of the two plays.
The yards-per-pass average was significantly higher with Witten in a route.
But Witten couldn’t be open, because he was left in to block on both the 3rd and 4th down plays. These two plays in particular got us to thinking: how effective are the Cowboys on pass plays when Jason Witten is out in a route versus when he stays in to block? We tracked every play of the 2009 season, and the results are to the right.
Witten was in the lineup for 485 pass plays (this includes sacks and Romo scrambles). Of these plays, he was out in a pass route 374 plays, or 77.1% 0f the time. Intuitively, it seems as though Witten must be out in a route more than about 3 out of 4 pass plays, but this was not the case.
As you can see, the Cowboys were more successful by leaps and bounds when Witten went into a route. They averaged a stout 9.3 yards-per-attempt during these situations, compared to just 7.4 yards-per-attempt on the 111 pass plays where Witten blocked.
But why is this the case? Is it purely due to Witten’s supreme receiving skills, or could there be another reason? If Witten was out in a route more often during pass-friendly situations, such as when an opposing defense is playing a prevent, for example, then these numbers might be a bit inflated.
This was not the case, however. Often times the Cowboys would be in a formation called “Gun 3 Wide Pro” (pictured left) during these situations, where Witten lined up next to Romo in the shotgun. He would frequently stay in to block, and only sneak out into a route if the protection was sound. Thus, this does not seem to be a reason for the higher passing average when Witten was a receiving option.
Another possible reason for a decrease in average is that the Cowboys frequently would keep Witten in to block when trying to go for the big play. Opposing defenses often key the tight end to decipher run or pass, and when linebackers and safeties see Witten staying in to block, they tend to sneak up toward the line of scrimmage. Dallas loves to run one and two-man routes during these times, attempting to sneak a receiver behind an over-aggressive defense.
So why would this cause a lower yards-per-pass average with Witten blocking? Perhaps attempting a big play gives the Cowboys a shot at a quick score, yet ultimately lowers the average because of the low chance of hitting on such a play.
If this is the case, though, we would expect the percentage of big plays to be significantly higher when Witten remains in to block versus when he is in a route. Again, we dove into the film, and here are the numbers:
The Cowboys had slightly more big plays when Witten was not in a route.
The percentage of 15+ yard plays in the two scenarios is virtually even, while the percentage of 30+ yard plays is slightly higher when Witten remains in to block. These are the sorts of number that might be expected, but not a significant enough difference to explain nearly a two-yard difference in yards-per-play average (9.3 vs. 7.4).
Yet another possible explanation for the difference is that, when Witten stays in to block, there is a good chance the Cowboys are expecting blitz. Blitzes could force bad decisions and lower the average. The problem with this idea, however, is that Romo is one of the most effective quarterbacks in league history against the blitz. If opposing defenses blitz and the Cowboys have proper protection, which would most likely be the case when they leave a tight end in to block, Romo would generally pick them apart (meaning this cannot be a correct explanation for the decrease in average).
One last potential explanation of the greater success displayed with Jason Witten in a pass route is that these situations are just generally safer than when Witten remains in to block. The Cowboys are more likely to not be blitzed during these times, and if they are, Romo has his favorite option available for a hot route. The numbers, though, do not seem to support this theory either.
When Witten did not go in a route, the Cowboys gave up eight sacks (7.2% of plays), but Romo threw zero interceptions. When the Cowboys’ top tight end did not stay in to block, however, the Cowboys yielded 25 sacks (6.7% of plays) and Romo threw all nine of his INT’s. This .5% difference in sacks is not statistically significant enough to conclude that there is any real difference, while the eye-popping difference in interceptions proves that putting Witten out in a route is not necessarily a safer option.
Once the yards-per-pass with Witten blocking vs. in a route reaches the Nash equilibrium, perhaps 85 or 90%, Dallas will maximize their overall yards-per-pass.
Thus, we must conclude that the 9.3 yards-per-attempt during pass plays in which Witten was in a route is actually due to his ability to get open and make plays.
So, how do all these numbers affect the Cowboys’ future playcalling? The greatest success rate would arise through a steady increase in the percentage of plays that Witten is in a route that only stops once the “Nash equilibrium” is reached. While we will not bore you by going into great detail about this term, know that it is basically when the average yards-per-play for both scenarios (Witten staying in and going out) is equal. At this point, the Cowboys will attain the greatest overall yards-per-pass average.
Thus, the best solution for next season’s playcalling would be for Jason Garrett to increase the “Witten-in-route” percentage until the Nash equilibrium is reached, reminding Romo to continue to limit turnovers, particularly when Witten is not in to help secure protection.
In Part I of our mock, we analyze the first ten selections of the NFL Draft. Check back tomorrow for Part II. View our “Potential Draft Picks” Series to see scouting reports on some of the top prospects and how they might fit on the Cowboys’ roster.
Jimmy Clausen
1. St. Louis Rams- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
The Rams absolutely must find a franchise quarterback. There are rumors they may be interested in Michael Vick, but that would just be a short-term solution. Jimmy Clausen’s physical tools are all there, but we question his attitude and work ethic. He probably fits the Rams’ system better than Sam Bradford, though, so he goes here.
Ndamukong Suh
2. Detroit Lions- Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
If St. Louis chooses a quarterback, the Lions will take their top-rated defensive tackle– either Suh or Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy. Suh is the more well-known of the two, but either could be the choice.
Eric Berry
3. Tampa Bay Bucs- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Tennessee safety Eric Berry fills a need for Tampa and will immediately compete for a starting spot. Passing on Gerald McCoy would be difficult, but Berry is about as close to a can’t-miss prospect as you get, and there is a bigger bust rate on defensive tackles.
Russell Okung
4. Washington Redskins- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford is Washington’s consensus pick in mock drafts right now, but we feel new coach Mike Shanahan will give Jason Campbell a shot. Campbell struggled in ’09, but until he obtains proper protection, we will never know how good he really is. Russell Okung, who almost certainly will be the first OT taken, can provide that protection.
Joe Haden
5. Kansas City Chiefs- Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Joe Haden is the consensus #1 cornerback in the draft, and the Chiefs are extremely weak at the position opposite Brandon Flowers. Gerald McCoy is still on the board, but probably would not fit Kansas City’s scheme.
Sam Bradford
6. Seattle Seahawks- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
We think that Bradford is just as overrated as Jimmy Clausen. This quarterback class is extremely weak, so this is definitely a reach, but quarterbacks never last long. Pete Carroll will want to secure his franchise quarterback immediately, so Bradford makes sense as a guy who can come in and sit for a year behind Matt Hasselbeck before taking over the reigns in 2011.
Gerald McCoy
7. Cleveland Browns- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Cleveland has been frequently linked to CB Joe Haden, but with him gone and DT Gerald McCoy still on the board, this is a no-brainer. McCoy would represent tremendous value this late in the draft.
Rolando McClain
8. Oakland Raiders- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
Rolando McClain, who we profiled earlier this year, has tremendous size and speed. For Raiders’ owner Al Davis, that is really all that matters.
9. Buffalo Bills- Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Bryan Bulaga
The Bills have a ton of needs, including quarterback. With no top signal-callers left on the board, they could go with either an offensive or defensive tackle. The top two defensive tackles will be long gone by this point, though, so the value just is not there. Don’t rule out this team trading up for a quarterback.
J. Pierre-Paul
10. Jacksonville Jaguars- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB, South Florida
This pick is subject to a coin flip, so it could be Denver’s. If Jacksonville remains in the slot, they must address their pass rush, and Pierre-Paul is a crazy athletic pass-rushing force.
Part II of our Mock Draft will include picks 11-20.
A lack of available roster spots means the Cowboys would be best served emphasizing quality over quantity.
Owner Jerry Jones has already claimed that the Cowboys are going to remain at pick #27 in this year’s draft. While it is impossible to know whether he is being truthful or simply posturing, this season may actually be the appropriate time to move up in the draft and secure an impact player.
Trading up in the draft, particularly in the first round, can often be a very risky proposition. The cost of moving up from pick #27 to the 20th slot, for example, is about a mid-third round pick, as stated in the NFL Draft Value Chart. If the Cowboys give up their first and third round selections, they could move up to about pick #21. This is a lot to ask for the right to select a player who could easily drop six spots anyway. Should Dallas give up their first and second round selections, they could move up to right around the 16th pick.
So why would we support trading up when it is so costly? The answer is a numbers game. While risky, the abundance of quality depth and the multitude of second-year players currently on the roster makes moving up a sensible idea this season. Realistically, how many rookies can possibly make the squad this season? Five? Four? Second-year players who got injured last season, such as Jason Williams, Brandon Williams, Stephen Hodge, Robert Brewster, and Michael Hamlin are near-locks to make the team. With only two unrestricted free agents (Montrae Holland and Cory Procter), there are a lack of truly available roster spots.
Thus, the Cowboys should identify the player they covet most, package a few picks, and go get him. Whether it is Alabama’s ILB Rolando Mcclain or a tackle of the future, such as Rutgers’ Anthony Davis, the draft philosophy of the team this year should be emphasizing quality over quantity. The Cowboys are not at all far away from Super Bowl contention, and with a few minor tweaks, the team could be hosting the game for themselves in early 2011. While we are not advocating giving up the farm and sacrificing the entire draft, the Cowboys certainly could put their 2010 squad over the top by unleashing a few picks to guarantee that they secure a coveted playmaker.
The Cowboys may have a tough decision if a player like Rutgers' OT Anthony Davis drops into the 20's.
